The upcoming holiday season has the potential to break previous records, the National Retail Federation (NRF) announced Wednesday, with holiday sales expected to increase by up to 10% over last year.
NFR revealed in a statement that its forecast indicates that holiday sales in November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% from last year, bringing total sales to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion, according to "The Hill."
Last year, holiday sales grew 8.2% to $777.3 billion, and over the past five years the average increase was 4.4%. The festive season will begin on the 1st of November and will continue until the 31st of December.
“The big momentum is there as the US approaches the holiday shopping season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, citing rising incomes, a strong balance sheet and investment in supply chains by retailers.
"Consumers are in a very positive situation over the last few months of the year as incomes are rising and household budgets have never been stronger," Shay said.
The NFR expects that online and other non-store sales, which are counted in total, will grow 11%-15% to between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion, and these increases will be largely driven by online purchases. .
to compare; Online and other out-of-store sales rose from $196.7 billion in 2020, and the union added that families are expected to return to traditional holiday shopping methods such as in-store shopping this year, although e-commerce will remain important.
The holiday shopping forecast comes as the United States continues to grapple with supply chain issues that have caused concerns about the upcoming holiday season.
Manufacturers, suppliers and distributors forced to lay off workers and slow operations at the start of the pandemic are now having a hard time responding to rising demand, which has led to major bottlenecks in ports and other sectors of the supply chain.
Jack Kleinens, chief economist at NRF, said that if retailers can continue to stock goods on the shelves, the upcoming holiday season could be very successful. .
He added: “With consumers likely to seek to shop early, stocks may be drawn down sooner and shortages may develop in the subsequent weeks of the shopping season. It's an excellent sales season during the holidays."
The NRF also predicted that business owners will hire between 500,000 and 665,000 seasonal workers in the coming months, up from 486,000 employed last year.
Some of these hiring may start in October as some retailers are urging families to start holiday shopping early to prevent stock shortages and shipping delays, and retailers have already announced new stores, warehouses and distribution centers opening.
The association also said that the holiday weather forecast contributes to its predictions of a successful sales season, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects colder and wetter winters in the north and warmer and drier weather in the south, which is consistent with what has happened in the past with strong and successful retail sales.
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