The United States is assessing the Russian-Ukrainian war

Two State Department officials assess the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the outcomes of the war, approaching the second anniversary of the invasion on February 24th.

The first official confirms that "despite fighting a difficult battle and continuing to fight, Ukraine has made remarkable progress that exceeded expectations and greatly improved its position since the early months of the war."

The US official explains that Ukraine has regained nearly fifty percent of the territory Russia seized in its initial full-scale invasion in 2022 in Kharkiv, then in Kherson. Ukraine has also significantly improved its air defense.

The official believes that one of the underappreciated benefits of last year's counteroffensive is actually the opening of the Black Sea ports, allowing Ukraine to start recovering economically in a serious way by pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet back to the eastern Black Sea and keeping it there.

He points out that this has led to very significant economic growth in Ukraine. "We see trade flows and trade ties growing for Ukraine. In January alone, they exported 12 million metric tons of grain, steel products, and other things that are produced in the Ukrainian economy.

He adds, "This far exceeds what they were able to do under the Black Sea Initiative and is starting to approach pre-war levels of economic exports. This is important because it allows Ukrainians to not only meet the global demand for grain but also grow their economy and bear more of the costs of the war with their own resources. This is a truly important achievement of the counteroffensive."

The US official describes reports of another Russian landing ship being taken out near Crimea in the past few hours by Ukrainian drones as a matter of significance.

He says, "The fact that the Russian Navy cannot operate in the Black Sea as it pleases compared to how it could operate at the start of this war represents a fundamental shift in the strategic situation in the Black Sea region."

He explains that according to some estimates, Russia has lost 20% of its warships.

Regarding the impact of the US halting aid to Ukraine due to Congress not approving the additional budget requested by the administration and its reflection on the situation on the ground in Ukraine, the US official says, "I can say from my personal perspective, we have been in worse places in this war. I see the first months of this war as being much more dangerous for Ukraine than the situation we are in now.

He adds, "The air campaign against critical energy infrastructure last winter was a much more difficult moment for Ukraine's strategic position in this conflict."

The US official confirms that the Ukrainians' determination continues "and that they are aware that there are major challenges they need to overcome, but there is confidence that they will overcome them."

A second State Department official says, "Putin's goals have not changed, and we have seen no indication to the contrary. His goal remains to erase Ukraine and subjugate the Ukrainian people entirely."

He adds, "So, to be very clear, this is not just a threat to Ukraine. It is a threat to Europe and the United States. It is a threat to our allies and partners and to the values and interests we share around the world."

He continues, "It is clear that Putin will not stop at Ukraine. We know this from his words and actions in 2008, 2014, and 2022. He has repeatedly questioned the sovereignty and history of his neighbors, from Kazakhstan to the Baltic states to Poland."

The translation is accurate and conveys the meaning of the original text. It is also written in clear and concise English.