How the results of Muller's investigation will affect Trump

US investigator Robert Muller's report is expected to be released in the first quarter of 2019, which could further compound the US democracy crisis, especially with regard to the president's post, the political future and the future of the Republican Party as well.

 

This comes as the New York Times reports that the FBI is investigating whether President Donald Trump is acting on Russia's behalf or has inadvertently been under Moscow's influence.

Investigators in the field of counter-espionage have taken it upon themselves to investigate whether the president's actions pose a potential threat to national security.

The investigations began after James Coomy was sacked in May 2017. The appointment of Inspector Mueller was then appointed by the Justice Department to investigate Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential election and the possible collusion between Trump and Russia.

The most important question

The main question in Müller's investigations into the role and influence of Russia in the US presidential election concerns the knowledge of candidate Donald Trump about continuing his campaign with the Russians to support his electoral fortunes.

If the answer is "yes," the president will be accused of colluding with an opposing force to influence the results of the elections, which would require resigning rather than being prosecuted, as was the case with former President Richard Nixon in the mid-1970s.

No one knows what Muller has in store so far, and this raises speculation about the investigations that have been going on for more than a year and a half, but Muller is expected to have plenty of evidence of legal violations of the Trump electoral team and possibly offenses to Trump himself.

The investigation is focused on two crimes: collusion and obstruction of justice. The two crimes are thought to be closely related and may lead to one another in one way or another, says the legal expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

The crime of collusion is linked to any complicity between the Trump campaign and Russia. The crime of obstruction of justice is linked to the dismissal of Trump, director of the FBI, James Coomy, after he rejected several demands for Trump, including declaring his full loyalty.

Prosecutors expect Trump's conviction to impede justice because of his position on the investigation and the dismissal of the former FBI director. Some of Trump's top aides have already been charged and others have acknowledged federal charges, some of them related to the campaign and some to previous personal offenses related to tax evasion or financial fraud. .

The revelations about the leaking of the campaign's Trump campaign manager Paul Manfort last week were related to voter statements and internal opinion polls by his Russian partner close to Russian intelligence, to indicate relations between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Scenarios

Detective Muller and none of his top aides, who form a strong legal team with more than 40 lawyers and investigators, did not leak any references to what their final report contained, but the report would not produce three alternatives:

    First: The report is issued as expected

This is the most likely scenario, in which the investigative team of Muller sends the report to the Justice Department, and the work of Muller and his team ends at this point. The report will be confidential and will not be published in the media. The end should include clarifications about the investigation summary and if there are recommendations from the investigation team.

We note two important points: first, the report is submitted to the Department of Justice, not to Congress, and the second is confidential. This means that Deputy Justice Minister Ruud Rosenstein will have the right to use the report in the way he wants. (There has been no justice minister since Jeff Siechin resigned weeks ago, who has distanced himself from investigations because of undisclosed communication with the Russian ambassador to Washington.)

Rosenstein may present the report to Congress as widely believed and may find no justification for doing so. It is important to note that Rosenstein intends to resign following the appointment of a new justice minister. The Justice Department is expected to present the report to Congress, and many Washington experts expect the report to remain confidential in one form or another.

     Second: Muller's statement a wide list of charges

In other words, the next investigative team's step is similar to the federal charges of clear legal offenses. However, the accusations in this case will be heavy and involve senior officials. The report is issued.

The charges are likely to include crimes of conspiring and collusion with Russia to harm the United States. The charges may be raised by Ben Trump, former campaign director Paul Manfrott, and possibly Trump personally.

With the growing cooperation of one of Trump's closest aides, businessman Rick Gates and ten-year-old Trump lawyer Michael Cohen - as well as legal restrictions on Manforth - the likelihood of high-level accusations against Trump is increasing, but some legal experts assert unconstitutional criminal charges against the president During his reign.

    Third: the quiet end of the investigation

President Trump's supporters strongly advocate this scenario, which concludes that the investigation has not found any evidence of complicity between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Although 32 people have been convicted so far of various crimes against the backdrop of ongoing investigations, none of Trump's aides have yet been convicted of complicity with Russia, although the case of Paul Manfort, former head of the Trump campaign, is close.

Future effects

The Muller report is expected to produce wide-ranging implications on several critical issues. The size and nature of the impact will differ from the nature of the report, but generally there will be an impact on several issues, including: