Oil futures contracts fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to witness its rebound to the third session from its lowest since the seventh of October, ignoring the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them, following the developments and economic data that we followed about the Chinese economy, the largest importer. Global oil is on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Monday, by the American economy, the largest producer and consumer of oil in the world, which includes the speech of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.
medium;"> At exactly 04:27 am GMT, the NYMEX crude oil futures price for December delivery rose 1.26% to trade at $81.15 a barrel, compared to the opening at $81.13 a barrel, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a gap. The price is bearish, after it concluded last week's trading at levels of $81.27 per barrel.
Brent crude futures for January delivery also rose 1.15% to trade at levels of $83.52 a barrel, compared to the opening at $82.57 a barrel, knowing that the contracts also started trading on a downward price gap after it concluded last week’s trading at $82.74 a barrel, while The dollar index rose 0.06% to levels of 94.31 compared to the opening at 94.25, knowing that the index ended last week's trading at 94.32.
We followed the Chinese economy, the largest economy in Asia, the second largest economy in the world and the largest industrial country in the world, the release of the trade balance reading, which showed a widening of the surplus to 546 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 84.5 billion, compared to 433 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 66.8 billion in September / Last September, contrary to expectations that indicated a surplus of 386 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 64.0 billion, with export growth slowing below expectations and import growth accelerating below expectations.
On the other hand, Deputy Federal Reserve Governor and FOMC member Richard Clarida is scheduled to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “An Overview of Central Bank Frameworks” at an online event hosted by the Brookings Institution, before we witness the Fed Governor’s speech. Jerome Powell opening remarks at a webinar on gender and the economy hosted by the Federal Reserve.
And this comes before we witness the speech of several FOMC members, Deputy Fed Governor Michael Bowman and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, before we witness the Fed's unveiling of its semi-annual financial stability report and its quarterly survey of change The criteria and conditions for bank lending, the state of business and household demand for loans.
In another context, we followed last Friday, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm reported that US President Joe Biden is discussing with his advisers a plan to withdraw part of the strategic oil reserve in response to the OPEC + decision to maintain the production policy as planned despite repeated calls from some major countries On top of that, the United States and India to increase production and curb the rise in prices to support the recovery of the global economy.
Granholm also indicated that Biden is concerned about the rise in gasoline prices in America, which may prompt him to withdraw from the country's strategic oil reserve to revive the oil supply and then put pressure on prices, and this came hours after the end of the activities of the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC and its allies Oil producers from outside, led by Russia, the second largest oil producer in the world, or what is known as "OPEC +".
It is noteworthy that OPEC + approved, in its last meeting, which was held last Thursday, to increase oil production by about 400,000 barrels per day during next December, while fixing the oil production policy unchanged, which aims to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day every month, as agreed in the meeting. From July 18 from early August, the OPEC + cuts since then are estimated at about 5.8 million barrels per day, to be implemented until the end of next year 2022.
Other than that, we watched on Wednesday the US State Department’s announcement of its intention to resume Iranian nuclear negotiations by November 29, nearly five months after the last meeting of the parties to the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, according to which Iran dismantles its nuclear program and opens its facilities for more international inspections. In return for easing sanctions on it, especially the freezing of its oil exports, which will return to the markets in the event of an agreement being reached.
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On the other hand, we followed Friday the announcement of the American company Pfizer in a press release that its new experimental drug that can reduce the risk of death from the Corona virus 89% and that it intends to register 2,660 people to participate in the last phase of the study, and this comes as Pfizer is ready to apply to the Food Agency. And the US Drug Administration to obtain the necessary licenses for the experimental drug for the coronavirus, which will be given to infected people in the form of tablets.
In the same context, we also followed Friday, Pfizer Board member Scott Gottlieb expressed his expectations for the end of the Corona pandemic in the United States with the entry into force of US President Biden’s decision to impose vaccinations among employees in workplaces by the fourth of January, adding that the decision Which will apply to any company with more than 100 employees, will make 84 million workers in the private sector have to receive a second dose of vaccines.
According to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, which were updated last Friday at 04:11 pm GMT, the number of cases infected with the coronavirus has increased to more than 248,467 million infected cases, and about 5,027,183 people have died, while the number of vaccine doses given, according to the latest WHO update as of Friday, over 7,027 million doses.
Otherwise, the markets are still pricing expectations of strong demand for oil in exchange for China and the United States resorting to pumping its strategic stocks of gasoline and diesel, especially after the Chinese National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration reported in advance that the liberation of fuel stocks aims to reduce the energy crisis that the country is going through and to support price stability. in several regions.
This comes in the shadow of the global energy crisis due to the natural gas crisis in Europe on the verge of winter and the thermal coal crisis in China, which led to a crisis in electricity generation there, given that 70% of power plants in China depend on coal, whose production has declined due to pollution control restrictions. Environmental and global warming and for China to freeze its imports of coal from Australia to strain relations between the two countries.
We would like to point out that the weekly report of Baker Hughes, on Friday, showed a decrease in drilling and oil drilling rigs operating in America by 6 rigs to 450 rigs, to reflect the largest weekly increase since mid-October and the highest since April 2020, and a rise of 224 rigs from a year On the contrary, US oil production last week witnessed a rise of 200,000 barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day, reversing its highest level in two months.
It is reported that US oil production declined by 1.6 million barrels per day, or 14% from its all-time high of 13.1 million barrels per day in March 2020, as a result of the recent closure of some drilling and exploration platforms due to the widening gap between the cost of extraction and the selling price, especially after a pandemic. Corona, knowing that US oil production reached its lowest level in August 2020 at 9.7 million barrels per day before witnessing a recent recovery.
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