A report published by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warned that Iran has developed its missile capabilities to become "more accurate", and indicated that it may have the ability to "disrupt" the work of US bases in the region.
Ian Williams wrote in the report that the attack by Iran against the "Eye of Assad" base in Iraq, which includes American forces in response to the killing of Qasim Soleimani, had greater consequences than "just an attack that was not intended to cause harm", according to US officials.
The attack also indicates the extent to which Iranian missile systems are able to "disrupt" the military operations of the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard had fired about 20 ballistic missiles at the "Ein al-Assad" bases in Anbar and "Harir" in Arbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, and at the time of the attack, most of the 1,500 American soldiers at Ein al-Assad base had been barricaded in shelters after receiving warnings from their superiors.
Initially, the Ministry of Defense said that the attack did not result in casualties among US forces and caused limited damage to the base, and then announced that 34 military personnel had been diagnosed with brain injuries.
Williams said in his report that he knew from the start that damage was done to the American forces, indicating that 64 members of the forces were evacuated from the base and received medical care for brain injuries, and this number has increased over time and is still a candidate for rise, because such symptoms do not appear immediately. ".
The researcher said that these injuries occurred because not all forces were in a safe position in the underground fortified rooms, and some soldiers were deployed in open locations to defend the base in the event of an attack, while others stood on the ground to continue operating the drones.
The researcher pointed out that the shelters in "Ain al-Assad" were only valid for protection from small strikes such as regular rockets and mortars, and not ballistic missiles carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives such as those that hit the base.
Two American officers, including the commander of US forces in "Ain al-Assad", said that the Iranian strikes had caused "the doors of the shelters to be bent."
The researcher excludes that Iran had intentionally avoided the occurrence of casualties, as it targeted the base in which there are residential places for the soldiers, "and if it really wanted to avoid human casualties, it could have targeted only the hangars and support facilities that were present."
He also pointed out that the US military bases outside the American territory are teeming with activities 24 hours a day, so it cannot be expected that there will be any place inside it that is not inhabited by individuals.
The writer notes that the missiles were fired at intervals, a tactic used by the attacking party to give the wrong impression that the shelling had ended, to encourage soldiers to leave the shelters and then resume the shelling with more deadly strikes.
"It was just enough time to make you feel safe. The goal was to inflict casualties," the al-Qaeda commander in chief said.
As for the Iranian warning to Baghdad 90 minutes before the attack, it may indicate a desire to reduce the number of deaths, but it is also a position that may be driven by the failure to "destroy" its relationship with Baghdad.
The report indicates that the accuracy of the missiles that hit "Ein al-Assad" achieved a high degree in the scale of what is known as a "potential circular error", a measure of the degree of accuracy of missiles in striking military targets, indicating that Tehran "has a potential ability to disrupt the work of American forces in Region".
The researcher stated that a pilot at the base informed a journalist that an Iranian warhead hit the rest of the soldiers near the operating rooms of the aircraft, forcing the pilots to take cover, rolling the rooms underground.
The bottom line
The researcher said that these attacks show the extent of the danger that progress in Iranian missile capabilities poses to American forces, and called on the United States to take measures to enhance the security of its forces and reduce their exposure to air and missile attacks, by enhancing the ability of shelters to withstand a direct strike from the missile category. Ballistic.
"Regardless of whether or not Iran wants to inflict casualties, its leadership knew that the chances of deaths among US forces were great and was ready to act anyway," the author said.
He also pointed out that raising the alert of Iranian air defenses in the aftermath of the operation in anticipation of an American response, was tragically manifested by the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines plane.
The writer notes that "Iran's risk of killing American military personnel means that its leadership believed that the benefits of the strike outweigh the possible reaction, and that this may be a shift in Iranian thinking," noting that Iran had previously launched its attacks against American interests through its proxies, and then acted Directly, it launched attacks on a Saudi oil facility, but it did so in secret and denied responsibility. But in the latter case, she behaved openly and dumped about 10,000 kilograms of explosives. "
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